Forum:2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting Pools) *2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) December 98P.INVEST Say hello to (likely) the first invest of the SPac season. Low chance on JTWC, but not yet being mentioned at all on the RSMC Nadi outlook. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:14, December 3, 2017 (UTC) No longer on JTWC but still on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:54, December 5, 2017 (UTC) :No longer on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:42, December 6, 2017 (UTC) 02F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 02F (91P.INVEST) New weak low near Samoa. Development is possible until Wednesday, when it encounters less favorable environmental conditions. ~ Steve �� Happy 04:04, December 17, 2017 (UTC) : Will it become the first storm of the season, Fehi? Stay tuned. Hi!- 08:02, December 17, 2017 (UTC) ::This disturbance shouldn't become Fehi. It's down to "low" chance for Tuesday according to RSMC Nadi, and won't develop beyond that day. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC) ::It's pretty much dead now. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC) 03F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 03F Adjacent to 02F. Has a "moderate" chance of development for Tuesday, but downgrades to "low" after that (RSMC Nadi). Meanwhile, this is quoted from TCWC Wellington: OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 22-DEC-2017 Many other lows may form within the SPCZ, and the UK shows one low developing to the north of Fiji by early Friday and deepening to TC intensity from late Friday onwards, while moving to the southeast. UK shows this development under a diffluent region, ahead of an upper cut-off low/trough, and strengthening ridge aloft. EC shows the low slightly southwards under strong shear. EC ensemble shows 20-30% chance of TC development to the west of Fiji. Based on the difference between models, the chance of TC development to the north of Fiji from Friday onwards is LOW to MODERATE. SPac is starting to ramp up. Can we see Fehi by Christmas? ~ Steve �� Happy 06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC) : Actually, this has moved into high shear. Extremely unlikely to become anything. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC) :: Yep, it's dead ~ Steve �� Happy 23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC) 04F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 04F North of Vanuatu, but hasn't been declared yet as of the time I wrote this. Low chance in the long run, but overall doubtful that it will be Fehi. ~ Steve �� Happy 23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Depression 04F 30 mph/998 mbar. Fehi anyone? JoeBillyBob Tropical Disturbance 04F (2nd time) Actually Fehi is out of the question. Latest RSMC Nadi outlook downgrades it back to a disturbance, with a "low" chance for Christmas and beyond that it's "very low". ~ Steve �� Happy 06:25, December 24, 2017 (UTC) Still active, but pressure is now 1002 mbars. It won't develop anymore.~ Steve �� Happy 21:25, December 26, 2017 (UTC) January AOI: West-Southwest of Southern Cooks RSMC Nadi has a low pressure system up to the west-southwest of the Southern Cook Islands. They give it a "low" chance throughout the next 3 days. Doubtful if this will become much however. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:41, January 3, 2018 (UTC) No longer mentioned. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC) General deadness Something wrong with this basin this season? Even 2016-17 and 2011-12 had more disturbances by mid-January, and those were the two least active SPac TC seasons on record. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:30, January 16, 2018 (UTC) 05F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 05F Up as an invest, and code orange on JTWC. Hopefully this finally becomes the first named storm of this season. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:48, January 26, 2018 (UTC) Actually,this is still inport moresby's area of responsibility.JoeBillyBob (talk) 16:49, January 26, 2018 (UTC) :No it's not. None of Port Moresby's area of responsibility is located in the SPac basin, and this is in the SPac basin, not Aus. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 17:04, January 27, 2018 (UTC) Hmm... I wonder if this is actually 94P, up as code red on JTWC way out near French Polynesia? Wikipedia claims that the system below (06F) is actually 05F, but we all know Wiki is not official (RSMC Nadi is). ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC) : Actually, Wiki now shows this as a short-lived disturbance in the same region that Fehi developed in. I wonder if RSMC Nadi changed the storm's designation? I'd be surprised if this was actually completely separate from Fehi, because Wiki says this lasted from the 26th to the 27th which is at the same time Fehi might have been starting to develop in that area. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::I'm very confused too. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::: The track map for Fehi is uploaded on Wikipedia, and it seemed to originate in or near TCWC Port Moresby's area of responsibility before moving into this basin, while 05F was short-lived northwest of New Caledonia. This says that Fehi was in the same region (south of Solomon Islands, aka northwest of New Caledonia) on January 27, at the same time that "05F" was active in the same exact region. It's all probably the same system, unless 05F was another brief short-lived system that instantly merged with the developing Fehi due to extreme proximity. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:37, February 2, 2018 (UTC) 06F.FEHI Tropical Disturbance 06F RSMC Nadi seems to have this system, located west of Vanuatu, up as Tropical Disturbance 06F, not 05F. However, Wikipedia says this is 05F. Since RSMC Nadi is official, I might as well put up the header... So much confusion. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC) :Someone has already edited the Wikipedia page. This is a different system from 05F. 06F may become Fehi soon; it's already a TS on the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:00, January 28, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Fehi It has been named, first of the year! Not expected to intensify much though, and if anything, it will likely just weaken from here on out before restrengthening as an extratropical system. I would be surprised if 05F was actually completely separate from Fehi (see my comment in 05F's section for the reason why, and 05F's track map and duration on Wikipedia). ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Fehi a weak failica.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:45, February 1, 2018 (UTC) 94P.INVEST I mentioned this system in 05F's section, but this was an unusual system near French Polynesia that had a TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) 95P.INVEST Up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL as a system southwest of Tonga. It's doubtful if this will develop though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Now code yellow on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:47, February 1, 2018 (UTC) Dead...No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:37, February 1, 2018 (UTC) February 07F.GITA 97P.INVEST Another one, located west of Vanuatu and south of the Solomon Islands. Currently only found on Tropical Tidbits and NRL for the time being. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:26, February 2, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 07F Now over Vanuatu, and has been designated "07F". ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Now has a "Moderate to High" chance for friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:46, February 7, 2018 (UTC) : Currently located northwest of Fiji. This is likely to become Gita. Code orange on JTWC, and a "High" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Gita Yay!No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC) : This is expected to become a cat 2 by JTWC as it heads south, but then west and moves over some islands south of Fiji. Ryan1000 23:32, February 9, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita cat 3 right now :o:No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:08, February 11, 2018 (UTC) : Now forecast to be a 115 mph cat 3 tearing through the Tonga islands by Monday. This isn't looking good for them... Ryan1000 01:36, February 11, 2018 (UTC) ::Gita is currently under strong shear, hopefully this keeps it from strengthening too much as it approaches Tonga. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, February 11, 2018 (UTC) :: ::Cat 4 and expected to strengthen to a cat 5 upon hitting tonga.Xp.No.1 Mobile (talk) 16:12, February 11, 2018 (UTC) :: ::Now up to 110 knots in 1-minute sustained.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:48, February 12, 2018 (UTC) :::Latest RSMC Nadi advisory says 120 mph/105 knots with a 930 mbar pressure, putting it as a C4 under their scale. 110 knots/125 mph according to JTWC. I didn't really expect it to become such an intense beast. It's also about to impact Tonga tomorrow. R.I.P. Tonga ;-; ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:31, February 12, 2018 (UTC) ::::As far as I can recall, no category 5 storms (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, not their scale) have struck Tonga in the past, so Gita may end up being one of the worst, if not the worst, cyclone on record to strike southern Tonga. Winston came close, but it struck Fiji at that intensity instead. Ryan1000 10:30, February 12, 2018 (UTC) According to Dr. Master's latest blog post on category 6, only one other storm, Ian of 2014, was this strong when it struck Tonga, but it struck the less populated northern islands. The folks in southern Tonga need all the help they can get right now, Gita may have been their worst storm ever. Ryan1000 00:27, February 13, 2018 (UTC) :Very strong, a very strong storm indeed. RIP Tonga. I hope that people in Tonga are okay... -- 02:28, February 13, 2018 (UTC) :Unexpectedly intensified to a category 5.No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:38, February 13, 2018 (UTC) I hope Tonga doesn't have to go through an ordeal with Gita! Heard about this scary cyclone on FB today. Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 00:41, February 14, 2018 (UTC) ::Although it’s a category 5 in 10-min, it is still a Category 3 in 1-min mean. :O Wow. I sure hope that Tonga recovers! -- 00:46, February 14, 2018 (UTC) :::Wikipedia already reports 2 deaths in association with Gita in Tonga. :( The death toll will likely rise in the coming days. Let's hope they easily recover from what has been their strongest impact by a tropical cyclone in recorded history. Anyway, Gita is still a C5 (SPac scale). Sustained winds are currently equivalent to a strong C3/weak C4 on the SSHS. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:43, February 14, 2018 (UTC) Gita is going down slowly as it passes New Caledonia. Winds have decreased to barely above Aus C3 status and SSHWS C1 status. Gita, however, is forecast to hit New Zealand's North Island as a sizeable post-TC. Hoping there's not going to be too much damage there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:34, February 17, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Gita (2nd time) weakening fast...No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:11, February 19, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Gita dead.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:11, February 19, 2018 (UTC) :Actually, Gita isn't yet dead. It's still tropical (barely), and advisories are still being issued from the JTWC as well as TCWC Wellington. However, Gita is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone within the next day. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:13, February 19, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Gita Now deemed post-tropical. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:17, February 20, 2018 (UTC) : Wikipedia still reports 2 deaths and unknown damages. Excluding the Tonga and Samoa hits, this was an awesome storm to track. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:15, February 22, 2018 (UTC) 08F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 08F (98P.INVEST) Currently over Fiji. It has been designated "08F". ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Depression 08F Upgraded to a tropical depression. Currently located southeast of Fiji and southeast of the above system. This is unlikely to develop further though. Code yellow on JTWC, and RSMC Nadi is also unenthusiastic about it. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC) Up to code orange on JTWC,and has a "low" chance on RSMC Nadi.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC) JTWC has upgraded it to a code red.No.1 Mobile (talk) 16:48, February 10, 2018 (UTC) :And JTWC has cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:59, February 11, 2018 (UTC) : :Still up on RSMC Nadi's TC Outlook as a 998 mbar TD. Won't develop further though. Our main focus right now is Gita. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:33, February 12, 2018 (UTC) :Completely dead now. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:43, February 14, 2018 (UTC) March 96P.INVEST Currently located about halfway between Fiji and New Zealand. Only found on Tropical Tidbits and NRL for the moment. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:04, March 1, 2018 (UTC) 09F.HOLA 97P.INVEST Has a low chance of forming in the next 24 hours Roy25 23:34, March 3, 2018 (UTC) Coded orange by the JTWC. Could be Hola in the next few days. Roy25 17:22, March 4, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 09F TCFA issued.Sjmaven (talk) 18:41, March 5, 2018 (UTC) Upgraded to code red by JTWC, Hola is coming! Roy25 22:55, March 5, 2018 (UTC) He just said that.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:38, March 6, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Depression 09F Upgraded to a TD proper by RSMC Nadi. Hola is likely here, but given that this is headed towards New Caledonia please don't get too strong. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, March 6, 2018 (UTC) Tropical cyclone Hola 40 mph/994 mbar. 19:32, March 6, 2018 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Xyklone's Retirement Predictions :Fehi - 0.5% : :Gita - 90% Xyklone (talk) 05:12, February 18, 2018 (UTC) There were only two named storms that formed in this season. Somehow, Gita was notable. We don’t normally do retirements here so I would rather save mine until later. -- 00:11, February 21, 2018 (UTC) :We do, but there are not very many users who track the SPac basin. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 00:03, March 6, 2018 (UTC) TG's Retirements *Fehi: 0% - Typical SPac failicia. *Gita: 100% - Gita was the worst tropical cyclone on record to strike Tonga, and probably the costliest I have ever seen in the basin. SPac is weird with retirements, but Gita is sure to go. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 00:03, March 6, 2018 (UTC) Mobile's Retirements *Fehi:0% - Boring Failicia. *Gita:100% - Worst storm for Tonga in Decades *Hola:50%? - Hola looks like it could be bad. No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:38, March 6, 2018 (UTC)